Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Republicans formally captured 218 House seats, a delayed yet consequential finish to the 2022 midterm elections. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. A consensus outlook for the 2022 House elections based on the current ratings of theseseven forecasters. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . Before the election, Democrats held 36 of the open seats up for election, Republicans held 27, and five were newly created seats. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. November 7:Toss-up races projected. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. RCP Gov Map Race . When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. . Clickme! The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Full election results. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. 100% remote. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? Updated Dec. 13, 2022 at 9:16 a.m. Eastern. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. We default to the Deluxe . The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. Ballotpedia features 395,397 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Facebook Tweet Pin Email. November 7: Toss-up races projected. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. Battle for the House 2022. Current House. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. You can also view these ratingsas a table. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. Metadata. File usage on Commons. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. By Leke Baiyewu. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. This analysis uses the following definitions: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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